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Stock.AGNC Investment Corp
| AGNCStock | USD9.360.010.11% |
At the present time, the RSI of AGNC Investment's share price is approaching 38. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling AGNC Investment, making its price go up or down.
AGNC Investment Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of AGNC Investment shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of AGNC Investment's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of AGNC Investment and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from AGNC Investment's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with AGNC Investment Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting AGNC Investment's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.40) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.55 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.18 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.99 | Wall Street Target Price 10.09 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of AGNC Investment based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The AGNC stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on AGNC Investment over a specific investment horizon. Using AGNC Investment hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AGNC Investment Corp from the perspective of AGNC Investment response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AGNC Investment using AGNC Investment's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AGNC using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AGNC Investment's stock price.
AGNC Investment Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in AGNC Investment's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards AGNC. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of AGNC Investment stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long AGNC Investment may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about AGNC Investment and may potentially protect profits, hedge AGNC Investment with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 9.4343 | Short Percent 0.0746 | Short Ratio 4.99 | Shares Short Prior Month 48.7M | 50 Day MA 9.543 |
AGNC Investment Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AGNC Investment's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AGNC. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AGNC can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AGNC Investment Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AGNC Investment's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AGNC Investment.
AGNC Investment Implied Volatility | 53.6 |
AGNC Investment's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AGNC Investment Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AGNC Investment's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AGNC Investment stock will not fluctuate a lot when AGNC Investment's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in AGNC Investment. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AGNC Investment to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AGNC because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
AGNC Investment after-hype prediction price | USD 9.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AGNC contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AGNC Investment Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.35% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With AGNC Investment trading at USD 9.36, that is roughly USD 0.31 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating AGNC Investment's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AGNC Investment Corp options at the current volatility level of 53.6%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
AGNC |
Check out AGNC Investment Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AGNC Investment's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AGNC Investment. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AGNC Investment's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AGNC Investment's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in AGNC Investment Corp.
AGNC Investment After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AGNC Investment at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AGNC Investment or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AGNC Investment, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density
| Expected price to next headline |
AGNC Investment Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AGNC Investment's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AGNC Investment's historical news coverage. AGNC Investment's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.04 and 10.70, respectively. We have considered AGNC Investment's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
8.04 | 9.37 After-hype Price Target Odds | 10.70 |
AGNC Investment is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AGNC Investment Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
AGNC Investment Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AGNC Investment is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AGNC Investment backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AGNC Investment, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
9.36 | 9.37 | 0.00 |
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AGNC Investment Hype Timeline
AGNC Investment Corp is presently traded for 9.36. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. AGNC is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on AGNC Investment is about 4433.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.36. About 42.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.98. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. AGNC Investment Corp last dividend was issued on the 29th of April 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out AGNC Investment Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
AGNC Investment Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AGNC Investment's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AGNC Investment's future price movements. Getting to know how AGNC Investment's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AGNC Investment may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EFC | Ellington Financial LLC | (0.06) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.77 | (3.55) | 9.32 | |
| AGNCN | AGNC Investment Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.16 | (0.17) | 0.59 | (0.44) | 1.23 |
AGNC Investment Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AGNC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AGNC using various technical indicators. When you analyze AGNC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About AGNC Investment Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of AGNC Investment stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AGNC Investment Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AGNC Investment based on analysis of AGNC Investment hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AGNC Investment's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AGNC Investment's related companies.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0.46 | 0.56 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 6.3K | 44.8K | 6.7K | 6.4K |
Story Coverage note for AGNC Investment
The number of cover stories for AGNC Investment depends on current market conditions and AGNC Investment's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AGNC Investment is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AGNC Investment's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AGNC Investment Short Properties
AGNC Investment's future price predictability will typically decrease when AGNC Investment's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AGNC Investment Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AGNC Investment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AGNC Investment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 694.3M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 518M |
When determining whether AGNC Investment Corp is a strong investment it is important to analyze AGNC Investment's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact AGNC Investment's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding AGNC Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out AGNC Investment Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Complementary Tools for AGNC Stock analysis
When running AGNC Investment's price analysis, check to measure AGNC Investment's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AGNC Investment is operating at the current time. Most of AGNC Investment's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AGNC Investment's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AGNC Investment's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AGNC Investment to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AGNC Investment's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AGNC Investment. If investors know AGNC will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AGNC Investment listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.40) | Dividend Share 1.44 | Earnings Share 0.05 | Revenue Per Share 1.305 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.23) |
The market value of AGNC Investment Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AGNC that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AGNC Investment's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AGNC Investment's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AGNC Investment's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AGNC Investment's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AGNC Investment's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AGNC Investment is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AGNC Investment's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
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