There’s been an ongoing debate about whether retirees should abandon the “4% rule” for withdrawals from retirement accounts, a retirement income rule of thumb for decades. The market volatility of recent years made that rule suspect for many new retirees, but a new study from Morningstar finds that the rule can still apply.
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What Is the 4% Rule?
Created in 1994 by a financial planner named William Bengen, the 4% rule posits that retirees can make a well-structured retirement fund last 30 years by withdrawing no more than 4% of the balance in the first year of retirement, then adjusting subsequent withdrawals for inflation. Bengen’s research was based on each 30-year period of market returns and conditions dating back to 1926. He found that even during the worst three decades for markets – a stretch from October 1968 to 1998 – a retiree wouldn’t run out of money.
The popularity of the rule has fluctuated, and the strategy comes with some associated criticism. That’s because during down markets the sequence of returns risk can come into play, which occurs when the first years of withdrawals take place when the value of the retirement portfolio is down. Earlier this year, personal finance expert Suze Orman argued that the rule no longer made sense and that retirees should prolong working and withdraw as little money as possible, but no more than 3%.
How Morningstar’s Study Factors In
The investment analysis firm Morningstar has examined the safe rate of withdrawal for the first year of retirement for a few years running. Morningstar’s newest research finds that with the partial recovery of stocks, withdrawing up to 4% is once again a safe starting point.
“I estimate that retirees drawing down income from an investment portfolio can now afford to withdraw as much as 4.0% as an initial spending rate, assuming a 90% probability of still having funds remaining after a 30-year time horizon,” writes Morningstar portfolio strategist Amy C. Arnott, CFA.
Morningstar’s research on the optimum initial safe withdrawal rate started in 2021 when the analysis recommended a 3.3% withdrawal rate. For 2022, that rate increased to 3.8%. The research assumes a 90% chance of success for a portfolio where stocks make up 20% to 40% of the holdings. At the end of 30 years, the portfolio would still have value.
The big factor in this year’s assessment was a change in the estimate for long-term inflation that fell to 2.42% this year against 2.84% in 2022, along with improvements in returns on fixed-income investments, such as bonds and cash accounts. The projected 30-year fixed-income returns (including cash) increased from 4.44% in 2022 to 4.81% in 2023. The study noted that while the performance of stocks has improved so far this year, the projected 30-year returns on stocks decreased this year, slipping to 9.41% from 9.88% in 2022.
The study notes that retirees who take a more flexible approach to withdrawals than a strict rate of 4% adjusted annually for inflation could be able to withdraw more money at the beginning of retirement when retirees often spend more money as they establish a new retirement lifestyle. Those retirees would need to accept that their cash withdrawals would fluctuate from year to year and that they might have less money left after 30 years.
Bottom Line
The popularity of the 4% rule comes and goes but it can be a good starting point for creating a safe strategy for retirement withdrawals. An important consideration is how much money is withdrawn in the first years of retirement, especially if the portfolio has lost value.
Retirement Planning Tips
- A financial advisor can help you build an income plan for retirement. Finding a financial advisor doesn’t have to be hard. SmartAsset’s free tool matches you with up to three vetted financial advisors who serve your area, and you can have a free introductory call with your advisor matches to decide which one you feel is right for you. If you’re ready to find an advisor who can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now.
- Social Security plays a significant role in most people’s plans for retirement. SmartAsset’sSocial Security calculatorcan help you estimate how much your benefits will be worth based on when you plan to claim them.
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FAQs
How Morningstar's Study Factors In. The investment analysis firm Morningstar has examined the safe rate of withdrawal for the first year of retirement for a few years running. Morningstar's newest research finds that with the partial recovery of stocks, withdrawing up to 4% is once again a safe starting point.
What is the 4% rule for Morningstar? ›
How much can you withdraw from your retirement portfolio each year? For many investors, the go-to answer is 4%. Researcher Bill Bengen developed that rule of thumb back in 1994, meaning an annual withdrawal rate of 4% is the amount that will see investors through retirement in any economic scenario.
Is the 4% withdrawal rule still valid? ›
The 4% rule comes with a major caveat: It's not really a “rule” since everyone's situation is different. If you have a large retirement investment portfolio, you might not need to spend 4% of it every year. If you have limited savings, 4% might not come close to covering your needs.
Is the 4% retirement rule making a comeback? ›
Ivanna Hampton: New retirees could kick off their golden years with a familiar number, 4%. A trio of Morningstar researchers analyzed starting safe withdrawal rates from an investment portfolio to fund retirement. The future looks good, and a little flexibility could make it even better.
How long will money last using the 4% rule? ›
This rule is based on research finding that if you invested at least 50% of your money in stocks and the rest in bonds, you'd have a strong likelihood of being able to withdraw an inflation-adjusted 4% of your nest egg every year for 30 years (and possibly longer, depending on your investment return over that time).
What's a safe withdrawal rate for retirees Morningstar? ›
Even with Morningstar's conservative assumptions, investors can safely withdraw almost 10% annually, inflation-adjusted, over a 10-year period. Easy pickings.
What is the safe withdrawal rate for retirees? ›
The sustainable withdrawal rate is the estimated percentage of savings you're able to withdraw each year throughout retirement without running out of money. As an estimate, aim to withdraw no more than 4% to 5% of your savings in the first year of retirement, then adjust that amount every year for inflation.
How many people have $1,000,000 in retirement savings? ›
However, not a huge percentage of retirees end up having that much money. In fact, statistically, around 10% of retirees have $1 million or more in savings. The majority of retirees, however, have far less saved.
How long will $400,000 last in retirement? ›
Safe Withdrawal Rate
Using our portfolio of $400,000 and the 4% withdrawal rate, you could withdraw $16,000 annually from your retirement accounts and expect your money to last for at least 30 years. If, say, your Social Security checks are $2,000 monthly, you'd have a combined annual income in retirement of $40,000.
How long will $500,000 last in retirement? ›
Yes, it is possible to retire comfortably on $500k. This amount allows for an annual withdrawal of $20,000 from the age of 60 to 85, covering 25 years. If $20,000 a year, or $1,667 a month, meets your lifestyle needs, then $500k is enough for your retirement.
Your 401(k) can recover after a recession if you give it enough time to regain losses. Historically, the stock market has always recovered from recessions to eventually reach new highs. In fact, your 401(k) may begin to recover before the recession ends.
What is a safe withdrawal rate for a 40 year old retiree? ›
The 4% Rule for Withdrawals
The 4% rule emerged in 1994 when advisor William Bengen found that a 50%-75% stock allocation could safely support 4% initial withdrawals, with subsequent annual increases for inflation, over 30-year retirements.
What is the 25x rule for retirement? ›
The 25x rule entails saving 25 times an investor's planned annual expenses for retirement. Originating from the 4% rule, the 25x rule simplifies retirement planning by focusing on portfolio size.
What are the flaws of the 4% rule? ›
The 4% rule is a reasonable baseline, but it also has serious drawbacks. Among them: Retirees often want to vary their spending during retirement. Many people don't retire for three decades. Market conditions affect how much you can safely withdraw.
How long will $300,000 last for retirement? ›
Summary. $300,000 can last for roughly 26 years if your average monthly spend is around $1,600. Social Security benefits help bolster your retirement income and make retiring on $300k even more accessible. It's often recommended to have 10-12 times your current income in savings by the time you retire.
What is the average 401k balance for a 65 year old? ›
What is the golden rule of Morningstar? ›
Determine Your Golden Ratio
Your Golden Ratio is made up of three numbers, representing the percentage of your gross income that goes to: The Past—Paying for things you bought/did in the past. The Present—Funding your current lifestyle. The Future—Accumulating to create future income.
What is the 4 rule in investing? ›
One frequently used rule of thumb for retirement spending is known as the 4% rule. It's relatively simple: You add up all of your investments, and withdraw 4% of that total during your first year of retirement.
What is the 4 rule in stocks? ›
The 4% rule states that you should be able to comfortably live off of 4% of your money in investments in your first year of retirement, then slightly increase or decrease that amount to account for inflation each subsequent year.
What are the assumptions of the 4 rule? ›
The 4% rule makes some assumptions
The 4% rule is based on some important assumptions: You'll live 30 years past your retirement date. The 4% withdrawal rule was designed for the classic retirement age of 62 to 65 years with the idea that you'll potentially need retirement savings into your 90s.
